Description of Research
This study examines the global performance of 22 K-pop groups, spanning different genders and generations, across seven countries: Brazil, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Indonesia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. To assess group-level popularity, I conducted linear regressions using each group’s Spotify monthly listener data by country. From these models, I identified the extent to which each group overperforms or underperforms relative to the country’s average Spotify monthly listeners of all the gorups. The resulting graphics display these deviations using color-coded bubbles—green for overperformance, red for underperformance—with the size of each bubble proportional to the magnitude of deviation. A global map further summarizes the most significant outlier group in each country, highlighting localized patterns in K-pop fandom and engagement.

K-pop Groups Sampled (in alphabetical order and with debut year):
Aespa (2020)
BigBang (2006)
BTS (2013)
Blackpink (2016)
Enhypen (2020)
EXO (2012)
(G)I-DLE (2018)
Girl’s Generation (2007)
ITZY (2019)
IVE (2021)
KISS OF LIFE (2023)
LE SSERAFIM (2022)
NCT (2016)
NewJeans (2022)
NMIXX (2022)
Red Velvet (2014)
RIIZE (2023)
SEVENTEEN (2015)
StrayKids (2018)
TOMORROW X TOGETHER (2019)
TWICE (2015)

Why do BTS and NMIXX over perform in Brazil, and what does that say about the Brazilian music market?
Brazilian audiences are known to value emotion, individuality, and bold musical expression, as reflected in popular domestic genres like Brazilian funk and samba. This helps explain why BTS and NMIXX, who produce emotion-heavy music, both over-perform in Brazil. BTS’s early albums, Love Youself ‘Her’, Love Yourself ‘Tear’, and Love Yourself ‘Answer’, emphasize youth struggles and identity and self empowerment, which aligns with Brazil’s passion for expressive music. Similarly, NMIXX are known for their “mixx pop” music, where the music shifts from one style to a very different one swiftly, like the shift from girly pop to bass-heavy trap in their debut song, “O.O.” These findings suggest that groups that overperform in Brazil share the similar energy that’s loved by the Brazilian audience.

South Korea
The global graphic of overperforming and underperforming K-pop groups reveals that BigBang is the single most overperforming group in the dataset, despite debuting nearly two decades ago. What explains BigBang’s enduring status as a cultural landmark in South Korea?
A large part of their legacy stems from G-Dragon, the group’s most iconic member and one of the most beloved figures in the K-pop industry. Known for writing and producing much of BigBang’s music on his own, G-Dragon’s influence on the group is undeniable. His 2013 solo title track “Crooked” remains the most-viewed content on YouTube, with over258M total views and 2.4M views overall. “Crooked” is so well-known that it was used as a unifying chant in recent political protests, symbolizing its extensive reach across generations.
Looking back at their career, it becomes clear that BigBang holds legendary status not just in K-pop but in the larger Korean pop culture. Their pioneering blend of hip-hop and balladry set the tone for future K-pop music. This breakthrough in music style brought with it a cultural breakthrough, enabling k-pop to be played in foreign countries for the first time. As a result, BigBang received wide culture recognition across South Korea, with some comparing BigBang’s cultural success in South Korea similar to that of Michael Jackson’s in the U.S.

Philippines Graph
What does the fact that SEVENTEEN, Girl’s Generation, and ITZY overperform in the Philippines reveal about the music market there?
The music market in the Philippines value performances that focus on dance and fan interaction that make the performance engaging. Both SEVENTEEN and ITZY are groups that present synchronized choreography, energetic music, and engaging performances, all of which align with what Filipino audiences tend to enjoy in live and digital performances. Moreover, k-pop culture traveld to the Philippines more than a decade ago due to TV programs and mall events, and Girl’s Generation was among the first k-pop groups that were known there. Their enduring popularity highlights how long-standing exposure and emotional resonance continue to shape music preferences in the region.

What do the patterns of over performing and underperforming groups in Indonesia and Japan reveal about their music markets?
Indonesia, with its blend of native and immigrant cultures, has long been receptive to global influences, including K-pop. The fact that five groups overperform there suggests a vibrant, open market where many styles can thrive. This diversity allows a wide range of groups to find success with Indonesian listeners.
In contrast, Japan’s music market is more selective and deeply rooted in local cultural preferences. Japanese fans often favor distinctive styles, such as bold or cute concepts, and groups that align with these tastes tend to perform consistently well. Those that don’t match local preferences often underperform, even if they’re globally popular.
Despite their differences, both markets show signs of being well-established K-pop hubs. The high number of overperforming groups in both countries indicates that K-pop has already achieved mainstream status, and continued focus on these regions could lead to significant commercial gains.

Among the many K-pop groups that overperform in the United States, how did StrayKids stand out from the crowd?
StrayKids overperforms in the United States thanks in part to their frequent release of English-language versions of hit songs like God’s Menu and Back Door, which lowers the linguistic barrier and helps them integrate more easily into the U.S. music market. Their music styles, mixing hip-hop with electronic, aligns with American preferences of music. Additionally, StrayKids prioritizes tours in the U.S., making stops in multiple major cities rather than limiting appearances to a few coastal hubs. This combination of accessibility, compatibility, and physical presence explains StrayKids’ success in the U.S.

What does the absence of over performance or underperformance in the United Kingdom reveal about K-pop’s presence in Europe?
The fact that no group significantly over performs or underperforms in the U.K. means that k-pop fans there likely stream multiple groups evenly without preferring one over the other This pattern indicates that the general interest towards k-pop in the U.K. is modest compared to Asia or Latin America. One contributing factor is that K-pop groups invest less heavily in European markets, with fewer tours and limited exposure through mainstream media. While major groups do organize tours, these efforts are often isolated and not sustained by other promotional activities. In conclusion, if k-pop culture wants to proliferate more in the U.K. and the Europe region, more consistent local exposure through TV, radio, and tours will be essential.